Seeing the Elephant: ChatGPT's Superpower!

We are at an inflection point

Image by Tom Voltz & Stable Diffusion 2023

Welcome to the second article in my "Seeing the Elephant" series that explores at the implications and opportunities of ChatGPT and Generative AI.

In early January of 2023, I had a chat with ChatGPT that shook me. During that chat, I realized that the latest generation of AI tools has taken us to a critical inflection point.

A common mischaracterization of ChatGPT is that "under the covers," ChatGPT is simply using math and algorithms to predict the most suitable next word in a sentence. Basically, it's "auto-complete on steroids."

First, when it comes to ChatGPT, that's not technically correct, and more importantly, it misses the point. That's like saying that playing the piano is just pressing specific keys in a sequence with varying degrees of force. Technically correct, but vastly incomplete. 

Because the ChatGPT agent is explicitly designed for conversation rather than just question-answering, I wanted to test that.  To evaluate ChatGPT on a more complex and extended information task, I asked it to help me plan an long-distance sailing trip.

I picked that task because a few years ago, I sailed a 42-foot boat with some friends from San Francisco down the coast of California and then to Panama and out into the Pacific to French Polynesia. So that would make it easy for me to evaluate the accuracy and usefulness of the chat.

One of the first things I discovered during the chat was that ChatGPT shines when you start:

• Drilling down: What does "x" mean?

• Following up: Why do you think "y"?

• Being curious - Tell me more about "z."

Try it! You will find much more rewarding and informative conversations. 

The overall discussion was around 9,300 words, and the body of the transcript is about 35 pages. And importantly, the flow of the conversation felt very natural.

I started the conversation by setting the context: "Help me plan a sailing trip from San Francisco to Panama and then to French Polynesia. I'll be in a 45-foot sloop. "

It started out good but relatively superficial. However, the value of the discussion increased as I asked follow-up questions and requested more detail.   You could not do that with either Google or Bing in 2022.

While the full transcript of the chat might be an interesting read, today, I will focus on one seemingly simple question that exposed ChatGPT's superpower and made that whole conversation extraordinary to me.

A seemingly simple question

I asked,  "How many miles per day should I estimate for planning purposes?" 

Consider the parameters needed to understand the question and provide a useful response.

• We're talking about a boat, specifically a sailboat

• The length of the boat is 45 feet

• It's a monohull (not a catamaran, for example.)

• The route will dictate prevailing wind speed and direction, etc.

The answer started out strong, with important caveats about estimating the speed for sailing:

"It can be difficult to estimate how many miles you will be able to sail per day, as it will depend on a variety of factors such as the wind, currents, and the condition of your boat. "

But then it jumped straight to the *RIGHT* answer, having incorporated the conversational context:

"However, as a rough estimate, you could aim to sail around 200 nautical miles per day."

Wow. That answer was correct and included all the relevant parameters from an earlier conversation. ( 200 knots seems optimistic but in the right range. ) As I read that response, my jaw dropped in amazement, knowing how hard that would be to have programmed.

Then it went further...

ChatGPT's response did not stop at that point. It added further helpuful information, using the full context of the conversation, by interpreting that speed information specifically into what it meant for my trip:

"This would allow you to complete the trip from San Francisco to Panama in approximately 17 days, and the trip from Panama to French Polynesia in approximately 27 days. "

When I saw that response, my jaw dropped to the floor. The level of nuance and conversational skill ChatGPT demonstrated is a game changer.  

My experience in having this long chat convinced me that we are at the edge of a new era with AI -- the future has arrived. And we are in for a lot of change and disruption- good and not-so-good. 

Why it Changes The Web:

When I had my long detailed conversation with ChatGPT about planning my sailing trip, I got 100% customized, relevant, and focused answers to my questions without visiting any websites. 

And it was much easier and more natural than using Google orBing search to get the same information.

In my planning session with ChatGPT there were no opportunities to sell me sailing gear, training classes, gadgets, or books. Of course, that's likely to change as the chatbot/assistant starts to make suggestions for products and services.

As of March 2023, both Bing and Google are figuring out how to adapt to this change - and all the content developer and websites will also have to get ready for the disruption in the attention economy.

If you want to see the full transcript of my chat you can find it here. If not, drop me a note, and I'll send it to you.

FYI: I also shot a video about ChatGPT’s Superpower- you can find it here.

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Next Time:  Generative AI and the Content Tsunami Subscribe below so you don’t miss it!